The Bank of Portugal (BoP) on Wednesday revised its forecast for gross domestic product growth for this year up to 6.3%, from a previous estimate of 4.9%, although inflation was higher than expected due to the international context. This dynamic can be explained in particular by the recovery of tourism, one of the main sectors of the Portuguese economy, whichIt is expected to reach pre-pandemic levels early in the second quarterAnd he explained during a press conference, Governor of the Portuguese Central Bank, Mario Centeno, that he was surprised by the speed of recovery.
Inflation expectations revised to 5.9%.
In the first quarter, Portugal’s GDP grew by 2.6% qoq and 11.9% yoy, the highest growth rate in the entire EU. However, the BoP Bank slightly revised down its growth forecast for 2023 to 2.6% from the previous estimate of 2.9%. For 2024, the growth forecast was maintained at 2%, and the inflation forecast was revised upward to 5.9%, from 4% previously, due to the fallout from the conflict in Ukraine. “We expected inflation to rise, but not by as muchMario Centeno said. The Portuguese economy is going throughThe direct and indirect impact of the invasion of Ukraine“contribute in particular”Increased disruptions in global production chainsconfirmed the central bank.
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The unemployment rate is expected to continue to decline, settling at 5.6% this year and 5.4% in the next two years. The Portuguese economy will also continue to benefit this year from the dynamism of exports, with an estimated increase of 13.4%, as determined by the latest economic bulletin of the Bahrain Development Bank.
