Traditionally, the New Hampshire primary marks the beginning of the obstacle course that leads to the nomination of a presidential candidate. However, this year, there is an unusually large obstacle: that of the courts.
Former President Donald Trump may already be the de facto Republican presidential nominee, but he won't be able to get rid of the 91 criminal charges against him.
There are two political aspects to this situation. First, it will force Trump to clarify his vision of the powers of the presidency if he returns to the White House. Next, we will have to see what the impact will be on public opinion if a presidential candidate is convicted.
So far, Mr. Trump has exploited his appearances in court, preferring to spend days following certain procedures in court, when nothing compels him to do so, rather than campaigning. He believed that his interest in this matter strengthened the argument that he was being unfairly prosecuted for partisan reasons.
But a criminal trial would have much higher risks for Trump. Polls suggest that a significant number of independent voters have not followed all of Mr. Trump's legal escapades in recent months. But a criminal conviction is likely to change the loyalties of some.
Last month, a poll from Wall Street Journal It gave Mr. Trump a four-point lead over Joe Biden. But a conviction of Trump would put Mr. Biden ahead.
scan for The New York Times The December poll indicated that a third of Republican voters believed Mr. Trump should withdraw from the race if convicted, even if that came after he was nominated as a presidential candidate.
Finally, according to a Reuters-Ipsos poll published this week, Mr. Trump has a slight lead over Mr. Biden. But if he is convicted, 31% of Republican voters say they will not vote for him. This will be enough to give victory to the current president.
For this to happen, trials must occur quickly. The trial for attempting to subvert the electoral process is scheduled for March, and the trial for illegal possession of secret documents is scheduled for May. But it is already clear that Mr. Trump's lawyers will do everything they can to slow the process, and these trials will likely not begin until after the election on November 5.
However, the mere presence of criminal proceedings before the courts could also have other harmful effects on candidate Trump. The judges will certainly force him to justify all his arguments, which will confront the former president with his own contradictions.
Trump's lawyers argued before the District of Columbia Court of Appeals that the president enjoys absolute immunity for everything he did during his presidency. Mr. Trump then asserted that all presidents should enjoy “absolute immunity” for all acts they committed while in office.
There would be, at the very least, questionable logic in allowing the President to violate the laws and Constitution of the United States. However, upon taking the oath, the President swears to “preserve, protect and defend the Constitution.”
As Justice Karen Henderson, a Republican, said during the presidential immunity hearings, “his constitutional duty to enforce the laws would then allow him to break those same laws.”
This is strange to say the least when we know that Mr. Trump promises, if elected, to prosecute President Joe Biden “for all the crimes he committed as president.”
During a campaign speech at a party meeting, you can say whatever you want without risking opposition. And Mr. Trump is not backing down. But in court, the judges were not accustomed to tolerating such tirades.
The real problem for Mr. Trump is that all of this is starting to affect Republican voters who have often been said to be a powerful bloc supporting their candidate.
In a poll conducted by NBC and Des Moines Register Conducted last week in Iowa, where the first caucus of the election season was held, for example, at least 43% of supporters of Nikki Haley, Mr. Trump's Republican challenger, said they were prepared to vote for Joe Biden during the presidential election. November elections.
Clearly, we are 11 months away from the election, and there will be a lot of water flowing under the bridge. This presidential election will be very close and nothing has been decided yet.
But one thing is certain: The 91 charges against Trump will play an increasingly larger role in the campaign. While Mr. Trump has done everything he can to make his presence before the judges a privilege, everything indicates that this is no longer the case at all.
