Many American political commentators have wondered in recent weeks whether an “October surprise” will happen between now and the election.
In the United States, an “October surprise” is a current event, planned or spontaneous, that influences voters' choices. It leaves less time for politicians to take corrective action. Hence, these surprises could change the course of the presidential elections.
The expression was coined during the 1980 presidential election when 52 Americans were taken hostage in Tehran after Iranian mobs stormed the American embassy during the fall of the Iranian-backed American Shah of Iran.
Republican candidate Ronald Reagan feared that a deal to release the American hostages would give incumbent President Jimmy Carter enough votes to win re-election.
The Reagan campaign made its doubts public, so that voters would view the event as a political ploy by Carter to win the election. William Casey, Reagan's campaign manager, was the first to propose the idea of an “October surprise.” Casey – Reagan's CIA director – set up an “intelligence operation” against Carter to uncover such a move. He even asked former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger for help.
Preventing the release of hostages
In fact, there is reason to believe that the opposite has happened. Allegations emerged that the Reagan campaign effectively blocked the release of the hostages. Abolhassan Banisadr, the former Iranian president, said that the Reagan campaign had reached an agreement with Tehran to delay the release of the hostages. Was this true?
What is inevitable is that the hostages were released within minutes of Reagan's inauguration as President of the United States in 1981. This information was confirmed from the American side by former Texas Lieutenant Governor Ben Barnes, who allegedly accompanied Governor John Connally. , a Reagan ally, on a secret mission to several capitals in the Middle East. Barnes asked his interlocutors to inform Tehran that Iran will have to wait until after the presidential elections to release the American hostages.
However, two congressional investigations into the allegations concluded that there were no plans to delay the release of the hostages. So, no surprises in October!
Middle East: Presidential elections from 1980 to 2024
Once again, the Middle East is at the forefront of the presidential campaign news. If the Trump campaign was involved in something similar, it would not be surprising that it would be linked to the release of Israeli hostages, seven of whom were also American citizens.
Donald Trump is even more immoral and unscrupulous than Ronald Reagan, whose presidency was tainted by the Iran-Contra or Irangate political-military scandal, which this time was confirmed by a congressional investigation. But that's another story.
