At the end of April, Donald Trump still has the best chance of winning. I will soon be abandoning a certain number of US issues to focus almost exclusively on campaign coverage.
For those passionate about politics, the coming months will be full of twists and turns. If the fate of American democracy explains your interest in the 2024 campaign, your nerves will be severely tested.
Biden is more present and dynamic
Since his State of the Union address, the president appears to be benefiting from improved polls. If not all are favourable, they usually confirm slow but continuous improvement.
- Listen to the American Politics column with Professor Luc Laliberté via QUB :
Still concerned about inflation, borders and pro-Palestinian demonstrations, Joe Biden knows there are still voters who will win, especially those who support Nikki Haley among Republicans.
When he looks at swing states, he sees a path to victory, even if he loses the electoral gains of 2020, such as Georgia and Arizona.
If nothing is done, Joe Biden appears to be enjoying increased travel while his opponent has to sit in court every day.
He is more energetic, aggressive and humorous, and the outgoing president never misses an opportunity to shoot an arrow in his direction. That's what he did this weekend at the annual Correspondents' Dinner.
Trump is entrenched in his role
Even if he makes many fanciful statements at the beginning and end of each day of his trial, the Republican candidate will have difficulty running the campaign the way he wants.
He constantly defies the judge, and I suspect he wants to impose a sentence that would allow his supporters to once again present him as a victim of a corrupt system.
If this narrative framework is able to allow him to rally his supporters, Trump also knows that the sordid details of his numerous extramarital affairs hurt him among moderates and independents.
In addition to the fallout from these scandalous stories, strategists in the Trump clan have noticed a recent trend in the polls: contrary to what was initially thought, the presence of Robert Kennedy Johnson as President of the United States.s As an independent it is particularly damaging to the Republican candidate.
A new deal for Republicans, too, as allies of the former president find themselves on trial in states like Arizona. Once again, they are accused of wanting to manipulate the results of the 2020 elections. Will independent voters react?
Rare good news for 45H The President last week: It appears the Supreme Court justices are in no hurry to quickly decide the issue of presidential immunity.
Each additional delay allows Trump to hope that he will not be convicted before November 5. Once elected, he can intervene and put an end to the proceedings…
