Donald Trump's greatest power since arriving on the political scene is to be himself and do whatever he wants.
It is still very early in the campaign, but now that he has established himself among Republicans, he is slow to adjust his strategy in anticipation of a national campaign during which he cannot rely solely on his loyal supporters.
If he insisted on this, he might become his own worst enemy. The defeat in 2020 and the disappointing results of the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections should serve as lessons.
Division limits
In American politics, you rarely find a candidate capable of winning without any concessions. There have been a few tidal waves like those experienced by Republican candidates in the 1980, 1984, and 1988 elections, but that is the exception, not the rule.
For example, Joe Biden knows that he cannot sacrifice the votes of young people, women and most minorities. His team is also concerned about seeing Spanish speakers and young people (a recent trend) joining the ranks of the rival camp.
For his part, Donald Trump should be concerned about the results of the Republican primaries. Even after announcing her withdrawal from the race, Nikki Haley still has a large share of support.
The 2024 race will be held in five or six states, and both candidates will need all the “changes” to return to the White House. In Trump's case, his primary focus should be on moderate Republicans and independents.
The most troubling statistic for Republicans is that more people are willing to vote against Trump than are willing to vote against Biden. The latter has received messages from voters who may avoid him because of his policy toward Israel, but the effects will be less dramatic than his rival.
Share votes with other candidates in the primaries
An Associated Press poll cited by Axios
And his strategists are scratching their heads
Donald Trump's refusal to present another version of himself than the one he has presented to us since 2016 is one thing, but what about the people who work for him? What about the Republican Party, which has always been a formidable machine for getting voters to vote?
Let's make no mistake. Whether we agree with their ideas or not, many of the Trump family's strategists and pollsters are powerful and well-organized. But this time, the results are slowly being felt.
The turmoil and personnel movements associated with the candidate's recent grip on his party likely partly explain the uncertainty surrounding his game plan, but even if money starts flowing again at a steady pace, Donald Trump must expand his voter base.
Perhaps his announcement today on the issue of abortion constitutes a first step in this direction.
