Obviously, this does not mean that the global increase in temperatures has stopped since then 2024 could break 2023's record. But this means that the concern about accelerating global warming has been removed for the time being.
What we talk about as “stored heat” is everything that accumulates in the atmosphere and oceans. To understand how quickly the Earth is warming and project the near future, we must take two things into account: the evolution of the average surface temperature – this is the measurement we hear about most often, especially when we mention that this or that record has been broken – and the evolution of the equilibrium Between the amount of heat that enters – due to the sun – and what comes out, or does not come out.
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In scientific terms, this is called balance or imbalance Earth's radiation balance. Part of the heat we receive from the Sun immediately returns to space, after being reflected, for example, by clouds or ice. Some of this heat still lingers. and, As we have known for a long time nowThe more greenhouse gases humanity puts into the atmosphere, the more heat remains “trapped.”
This excess heat We talk about it less often Let's not talk about temperatures, But it is still measuredIn recent decades, techniques have been improved to measure the amount of heat stored in the atmosphere, oceans, or forests. For 30 years, it has been estimated that the average 'dysfunction' More than double.
However, it does not follow linear growth, and here comes 2024 to provide some relief. Compared to previous years, which saw three successive La Niña events – characterized by cooler Pacific waters, thus storing more heat – 2024 promises to be much calmer.
This is even what climate models predict. But what they cannot predicthow long this respite will last, and how quickly this “imbalance” will continue to grow in the future.
