After a few years of dormancy, the El Niño climate phenomenon has resurfaced since July in the Pacific Ocean. According to the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency, there is a 71% chance that it will have a “strong” expansion and a 95% chance that it will continue until March 2024. In Quebec, its impact is generally limited, but it may slightly affect temperatures. And bring storms.
What is the El Niño phenomenon?
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years and usually lasts from 12 to 18 months. The surface waters of the Pacific Ocean are warmer than normal, setting off chain reactions that affect global climate.
El Niño can cause or worsen storms, droughts, or floods in different parts of the world. Here in Quebec, it could have been a factor – among others – that created the conditions for the 1998 ice crisis.
The opposite phenomenon is called La Niña, which causes a cooling of the Pacific Ocean.
Funny autumn
According to Andre Monnet, chief meteorologist at MétéoMédia, “the impacts [de El Niño] Not directly over Quebec, and not all El Niños have the same consequences.
However, what it often brings is the first early signs of winter. We find ourselves a little confused. “So we may find ourselves facing a cold snap or even snowflakes earlier than usual this fall.
On the other hand, it is not uncommon for a mild attack to follow and for the true onset of winter to be delayed. This is what happened in 2015 during the previous El Niño: the temperature rose to 20 degrees just before Christmas in La Belle province.
Maybe winters are a little milder…
Temperature-wise, Quebecers shouldn’t hold out much hope for a less harsh winter thanks to El Niño’s heat, according to Jean-Philippe Béguin, a meteorologist with Environment Canada.
Historically, during the months of December to February, El Niño has been associated with milder temperatures in Canada, but this association is stronger in the west of the country than in the east. In Quebec, “it’s more mixed.”
Average temperatures are “either slightly above normal, or close to normal.” So we can predict a “typical winter”.
On the contrary, historical data this summer predicted that Bell County would get hotter and colder under El Niño, and that’s what happened, notes Jean-Philippe Béguin.
Possible storms
El Niño can play havoc during the winter months in the United States, up into the Gulf of Mexico and along the East Coast. Moisture is abundant there, which can generate weather systems. These depressions can take paths leading to Quebec.
“What that means is that we could have, in that context, more easterly storms […] Which is rising rapidly along the US East Coast.
Snowbirds can taste it
In the United States in winter, El Niño generally brings cold, rainy weather to the South, including Florida. Consequently, snowbirds in Quebec are exposed to frequent showers and below-average mercury.
However, contrary to popular belief, the El Niño phenomenon tends to reduce the number of hurricanes that form in the Atlantic Ocean, according to the US agency.
