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The clouds of stagnation seem to be fading away. After the first quarter in which GDP fell 0.2%, France posted a growth of 0.5% in the spring.
this is First estimate of GDP (GDP) published on Friday, July 29th by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) will have to be confirmed at the end of August. But while growth in the second quarter was expected at 0.2% by the Banque de France and 0.25% by INSEE, it finally stabilized at 0.5% compared to the first quarter.
This growth is good news for experts, but it still needs to be monitored, especially due to the slowdown in consumption,tense geopolitical context And big inflation all over the world. The good performance of the French economy in the second quarter is explained by the clear positive contribution of foreign trade to growth.
According to this first national accounts estimate, imports fell 0.6% in the second quarter, while exports jumped 0.8%. This last one was Particularly driven by transport services (+6.3% after + 5.0% in the first quarter) and spending by foreign travelers in France (+8.6% after + 5.0%) », Insee details.
“ Conversely, merchandise exports declined (-0.6% after +1.4%), especially in transport equipment and agri-food. “, further specifies the institute.” The decrease in imports means that the increase in aggregate demand (external and domestic) this quarter was offset by an increase in production rather than an increase in imports, and in this sense it contributes to the growth of GDP. INSEE explains.
decrease in consumption
As for consumption, the traditional driver of the French economy, purchases of goods are still negative (-1.3%), but purchases of services are rising again (+1.5%). Two contrasting trends lead to an overall 0.2% decline in household consumption in the second quarter.
With figures published on Friday, the institute estimates the French economy to grow at 2.5% for 2022. A figure that is in line with the government’s annual growth forecast. The Bank of France or the International Monetary Fund (+2.3%) are slightly less optimistic.
This data is available the day after publication Growth figures in the United States in the second quarter (-0.9% annualized rate after -1.6% in the first quarter), which technically pushed the country into recession.
In Europe, the Italian and Spanish economies are recovering, up 1% and 1.1%, respectively, while German GDP is in the doldrums and Portugal is in the doldrums with -0.2%. Overall, economic growth in the eurozone fared much better than expected in the second quarter, at 0.7% compared to the previous quarter, while inflation broke a new record high in July of 8.9% over the course of a year, according to Eurostat.
(with AFP)
