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Only one small degree is expected on Friday, October 21 on thermometers in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. Signed on the approach of winter. A horrific winter as Russia bombs the country’s electricity infrastructure, depriving residents of heat, light and hot water. Interview with Anna Creti, commodity specialist and economist at Paris Dauphine University.
RFI: What is the current situation on the Ukrainian power grid?
Anna Kriti: The moment is decisive. Already, the Zaporizhia Power Plant, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, has been secured (the Russians conquered, editor’s note) and therefore no longer supplies the country with electricity. In total, the Russian strikes hit 30% of the energy infrastructure. This determines the real disadvantage of Ukraine.
What problems will Ukrainians face?
In very concrete terms, touching energy means touching the heart of economic activity. So this will affect the resistance that has characterized Ukraine in recent months, both to continue trying to have a normal life in the economy and in everyday life. Impacting much of the energy infrastructure means not only depriving Ukraine of energy but also destabilizing networks, thus creating blackouts and, consequently, interruptions in supply at all stages. All this when the gas is already at its lowest level. It is a nightmare for both citizens and businesses. This will also affect Ukraine’s military defence. Concretely, there will be a power outage. The parts needed to install electricity networks.
However, Ukraine is a very electricity-producing country. There was overproduction a few months ago.
It is true that they are major producers of electricity! But a significant part of this production was based on this large nuclear power plant in Zaporizhia. It accounts for 40% of the electricity used in Ukraine, and it was also used for export. There’s also another power factor: gas. Before the war, Ukraine was mainly associated with Russia. Since March, thanks to European solidarity, we have been able to connect Ukraine to the European network as a matter of priority. So there was the effect of shifting the energy balance of Ukraine towards Europe. This means that Ukraine, until June, was even able to export electricity to Europe. This was possible until the nuclear power plant we were talking about stopped. Today, Ukraine will have to import to deal with blackouts, power plant repairs, and grid repairs as well. So these are processes, as I said, that are very important and difficult in the short term.
And is the demand for energy inside Ukraine still the same? Did it increase with conflict?
Oh no! It has fallen by 40% since the start of the war and that level has remained fairly constant. In fact, there was a migration of part of the population to neighboring countries. So whoever says that fewer people necessarily say less electricity consumption. This drop in demand was a key element for the system to survive. But today is different. Winter is fast approaching. Now, we will see what evolution is. This is a period of increasing demand for energy. So they will have to deal with them by resorting to imports. There is also gas, because it is a country where the demand for housing for heating is a primary demand for gas. The country no longer receives Russian gas. So there too, it’s tense. Winter will be harsh in Europe, everywhere, but especially in Ukraine.
► To re-read: Russia continues to target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure
