The first round of the French legislative elections will have proven the validity of opinion polls. The far-right National Rally Party and its allies lead with 33.5% of the votes. It was followed by the left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front, with 28.1% of the vote.
(French time), the first estimates by the Ipsos Talents Institute place the presidential party in third place, with only 20.7% of the votes. The results of the second round, which will be revealed next July 7, will decide how France will be run and whether the President of the French Republic, Emmanuel Macron, will have to deal with a prime minister from another political camp.
In Montreal, the National Party candidate, Oussama Al-Araishi, received more than 56% of the votes, ahead of outgoing MP and member of the presidential majority, Roland Lescure, who received 22.5% of the votes. Far-right candidate Jennifer Adam found herself far behind, receiving nearly 10% of the vote.
The general participation rate in this first round is estimated at 65.7%, the highest since 1997, compared to 47.5% of the French who voted during the last legislative elections in 2022.
The French people have no voice.
It's 2 p.m. on Sunday on Avenue Mont-Royal when Mylene Alvarez, a 24-year-old Frenchwoman, learns the results of the first round.
“Whore!” screams in horror the young woman who has lived here for a year thanks to a travel and work permit (PVT).
“I'm disappointed, because I thought there would be more mobilization from the left,” she said. This means that there is still a lot of racism [en France] Because I think people vote for racism, not programs. [des partis]. »
According to her, many people who voted for the presidential camp in the past are now moving to the far right. She even admits to knowing many people who voted for the left in the past who now give their votes to the National Front.
She still has one year to spend here thanks to her visa, but Maylene Alvarez is now asking questions about a possible return to her country.
“If there is a prime minister from the National Rally Party, it does not make you want to come back, because we know that our conditions will deteriorate over time,” she said. There is a feeling of fear, because you tell yourself that you live in a country where people are fascists. »
“Hate has taken its place”
Sitting not far away on a balcony on the famous Rue du Plateau Mont-Royal, Adeline Conesa, a 38-year-old French Canadian, has just learned the results of the first round. She says she is not surprised, given the rise of the National Front in her home country.
There are many people who vote for the National Rally, but they don't say so. Hate has taken its place by making it more accessible by making people think they are a party like everyone else. I left the country because of the changed and very closed mindset.
Adeline Conessa, 38, French-Canadian
She explains how her grandmother herself was a victim of racism when she left Spain to immigrate to France.
“She was being stoned while she was asking to go back home to Spain,” explains Adeline Conesa. “Racism against Italians and Spaniards exists, but each generation seems to change its target.”
She adds: “Even if the National Front succeeds, the French must continue to have an open mind, not take their word for it and not advocate hatred.”
A “paradigm shift” in French politics
Many French political parties reacted quickly after the results to anticipate the second round. Several candidates have already begun giving instructions to block the far right and limit its rise.
“We are changing the paradigm of French politics tonight, because we are seeing a dark blue wave in the vast majority of French constituencies,” says Julien Robin, a doctoral student in political science at the University of Montreal. “We are witnessing the expected rise of the RN for 20 to 30 years happening before our eyes.”
For this specialist, whose thesis focuses on the evolution of parliamentary groups in the French National Assembly over the past fifteen years, the scenarios for the second round are rather limited.
“We can already expect a good majority for the National Front in the Assembly [nationale]He said, “Whether it is a relative majority or an absolute majority, it will not be large. The second scenario is that we see the Republican arc calcify during the week with withdrawals and withdrawals in the case of triangles, thus limiting the progress of the Republican bloc in the second round.”
Julian Robin does not expect a majority for the left, which is suffering from stagnation around its usual results. The French will vote again next week, and coexistence between Macron's camp and another party seems inevitable.
