Historical. The word has the power of exception. In pronouncing it, Mario Centeno, Portuguese Minister of Economy, emphasized its importance. Its 2020 fiscal bill plans to achieve a surplus of 0.2% of GDP next year. This has never happened in 45 years of democracy. Next year’s state budget was delayed due to the legislative elections on October 6, 2019, slowing down the process. It was completed in time for the end-of-year holidays, and will not be approved until February 2020.
Portugal wants to end austerity
Socialist António Costa, who is succeeding himself as Prime Minister, recalls A “Balance continuity, which aims to give priority to youth and combat demographic decline.” Portugal expects GDP growth of 1.9% in 2020, inflation of 1.1%, and unemployment which will continue to fall to 6.1% of the active population.
“fair calculations”
Since coming to power in 2015, the Socialists have turned their backs on the austerity policy that prevailed when the country requested international financial aid between 2011 and 2014. They have implemented a recovery strategy through consumption and external investment, driven largely by real estate and tourism. . Able to loosen the belt of austerity and reassure Brussels, the government wants to follow the so-called policy “Fair accounts.”
But those who were hoping to see Mario Centeno, the Minister of Economy, dressed as Santa Claus, were disappointed. The minister relies in particular on an investment of 7.5% of GDP in 2019 to 5.4% in 2020, a sensitive topic in this country that faces the aging of its public infrastructure. The text also expects household consumption to slow (to 2% compared to 2.2% in 2019).
Increase the tax burden…and the minimum wage
The stated strategy remains one of recovery through revenue, by increasing the number of taxpayers. The tax burden, which decreased from 2018 to 2019 from 35.4% of GDP in 2018 to 34.7% in 2019, will rise to 35.1%. “Income tax will rise by 0.3%, at the same level as the annual inflation recorded at the end of November 2019. It is clear that an employee who will be increased in 2020 at the same level of inflation (estimated between 1.1 and 1.4%) will pay more taxes, after it decided The government does not affect the tax brackets.” explains Nuno Cunha Barnabi, tax lawyer at Abreu Law Firm.
But the Portuguese realize this: they no longer live with the sword of Damocles over their heads, as was the case in the era of austerity. The minimum wage will increase by €35 on January 1, 2020, and is supposed to reach €700 in 2023 (i.e. an additional €200, after all, during eight years of socialist government). Young people who find work will be supported, sustainable development encouraged, interior regions of the country and small businesses will also be supported. But no one wants to start a fire. “I earn 500 euros a month, which I receive through the mission. Without help with food, I would not be able to live.” Sonia sums up who works in a media group.
The civil service is not satisfied
For its part, the civil service as a whole appears to be the weak link, even if sectors such as defense and police receive thicker envelopes. The state is offering its agents an increase of 0.3% next year, which is much lower than the inflation rate. “After ten years of freezing salaries and professions, and the decline in our purchasing power, it is provocative. protests Belandina Vaz, a history professor at a university in the suburbs of Lisbon and an activist in the Left Bloc (the Portuguese far left). Relying on moderation in salaries to justify the budget surplus and playing the role of a good student before European institutions is a political matter. The Socialist Party did not negotiate with far-left parties, unlike the previous Legislative Council. »
“We benefited Adds Ana Paula Costa, who teaches English at the Rennes de Leonor group of schools in Lisbon. Teachers stop doing more or less mandatory tasks and stick to the minimum. This is true, because the Portuguese have the ability to accept things that go beyond reason. » Despite the gradual improvement in the careers of civil servants, which began in 2018, and despite the allocation of €800 million for the health sector and investments in railways, the civil service is unhappy. She called for a demonstration on January 31, 2020.
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Portuguese recovery numbers
In 2011, Lisbon was forced to request financial aid from the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank. Who paid him 78 billion euros until 2014.
growth of the country, Negative between 2011 and 2013, reaching a record level of 2.8% in 2017 and rising to 1.9% in 2019, according to 2020 forecasts.
Unemployment peaked in 2013 at 16.2%. Before falling to 6.2% in 2019 and then 6.1% in 2020.
Budget surplus It is expected to reach 0.2% of GDP in 2020.
Public debt remains large Which is expected to rise from 119.3% of GDP in 2019 to 116.2% of GDP in 2020.
