On the main street of Sao Vicente e Ventosa, a quiet village full of whitewashed houses in east-central Portugal, election campaign posters jostling for voters' attention ahead of Sunday's general election look like the undisputed winner.
The posters of the right-wing populist Chiga party are the most numerous and their slogan – “We will end corruption and cronyism in Portugal” – is stronger than the more ambiguous slogan of the outgoing Socialist Party – “More work”.
Sao Vicente y Ventosa has become the avatar of Chiga after the old leftist stronghold, with a population of 730, gave the rising party the largest share of the vote in the last 2022 elections.
About 28% of its population voted for Chega, about four times the proportion of the party in the country as a whole.
Since then, Chiga has continued to grow, according to opinion polls, showing that the result obtained in this rural parish was not an anomaly.
This appears to be an early indication that Portugal, which only returned to democracy after the fall of a fascist dictatorship 50 years ago, may not be immune to the rise of populism in Europe, which is expected to lead to significant gains for the far right. Parties in the European elections in June.
Opinion polls suggest that Chiga, led by charismatic former sports commentator Andre Ventura, could win 15% to 20% of the vote nationally and become a kingmaker in the new parliament.
The center-right Democratic Alliance, led by the Social Democratic Party, the main opposition party, will collect the largest number of votes, but will not obtain a parliamentary majority.
Ventura told Reuters last month that Chiga would demand to be part of a right-wing coalition government in exchange for his parliamentary support. AD has so far rejected any kind of agreement with Chiga.
If AD forms a minority government, it may not be able to last long if Chega votes against its first budget later this year.
In a small village café, conversations often focus on the growing popularity of five-year-old Chiga, and many residents, including opponents, predict that it could, after finishing second in 2022, become the most voted-for party this time around.
“From what I hear on the streets, Chiga is going to make a lot of progress, which is unfortunate and sad,” says Joao Martins, 61, who votes for the Communist Party. “I don’t understand the mentality of the people, this working-class municipality that is moving towards the extreme right.
Wide network
Chiga, whose name means “enough is enough,” exploits discontent with the moderate and mainstream parties that have ruled Western Europe's poorest country for the past five decades.
Part of Chega's arsenal is racist, anti-immigration rhetoric, which helps rally ultra-nationalists under his banner, but his broader appeal stems from his promises to topple traditional parties, root out corruption and “reduce the tax burden on ordinary citizens.”
Parish council president João Charuadas, 38, a socialist, said Chiga's voters are generally men aged between 30 and 50 who work in low-income jobs. But more and more young people are supporting the party, encouraged by its clever use of social media.
“It is a vote against the central government because this parish is neither racist nor xenophobic,” he told Reuters.
The decline in average monthly wages of about 1,000 euros ($1,085), high prices and lack of public investment in infrastructure are the main reasons why many residents, including those who used to vote for left-wing parties, are “giving a big push to the far right.” ,” He said.
Millions of Portuguese face similar problems, making them potential Chiga voters.
Founded in 2019 by defectors from the centre-right Social Democrats, Chega has allied itself with hard-right, anti-immigration European parties, such as Marine Le Pen's National Rally in France or the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Germany.
However, unlike many Western European countries, exploiting anti-immigration sentiment is unlikely to be an important motivation for Chiga in Portugal.
EU data shows that Portugal had the second-lowest ratio of migrants per 1,000 inhabitants in the EU in 2021. At 4.9, this ratio was less than half that of neighboring Germany, the Netherlands or Spain.
“Ventura is a populist in the sense that he mixes themes that could be left-wing or right-wing,” political scientist Adelino Maltese said.
So while Ventura calls for an end to the “open-door” immigration policy, he also promises higher pensions and higher taxes on banks and oil companies, demands usually associated with hard-left parties.
“An act of revolution
Chiga benefited from corruption investigations that led to the resignation of Socialist Prime Minister Antonio Costa in November and ousted a center-right regional government on the island of Madeira in January.
Investigations are still ongoing and no crime has been proven, while officials have denied committing any violations.
However, many people find Mr. Chega's anti-corruption promises attractive.
“People are angry with the same system,” said Mario Goncalves, 35, a local shop owner who plans to vote for Chiga. “There is more and more banditry and corruption in our country.” “It is an act of rebellion.
($1 = 0.9219 euros) (Reporting by Sergio Goncalves and Miguel Pereira; Writing by Andrei Khalip; Editing by Charlie Devereaux and Sharon Singleton)
