At about the same time last year, System VIII in the Atlantic Basin, Henry, was forming as its predecessor, Grace, weakened again in a tropical storm. About two weeks later, Tropical Storm Ida formed. This quickly intensified and became the first major hurricane of the 2021 season.
Compared to last year, the current hurricane season may seem a bit sluggish however…
normal schedule
In the past seven years, the first tropical storm has appeared in the Atlantic basin before the official start of hurricane season on June 1. These early arrivals have helped give the impression that summers are so far unproductive for hurricanes.
But in fact, the first 2022 system, Alex, arrived only a few days after the official date, i.e. June 5. Next, Tropical Storm Bonnie formed on July 1, and Colin followed on July 2.
Expected revival
Since then, radio silence has been in the Atlantic basin. In fact, according to Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist who specializes in seasonal forecasts of hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin at Colorado State University, the last time the Atlantic Ocean saw any specific storm activity between July 3 and August 16, was in 1999.
No Atlantic storms have been identified since #Colin weakened to a tropical depression on July 2, and no storms have been forecast for the next five days per national hurricane center. The last time the Atlantic Ocean had no named storm activity was between July 3 and August 16, 1999. pic.twitter.com/4zKdY0OTPK
No named storms in the Atlantic Ocean since then Philip Klotzbach on Twitter: “No Atlantic storms identified since #Colin weakened to a tropical depression on July 2nd, no forecast for the next five days according to the #National Hurricane Center. Last time the Atlantic Ocean wasn’t Specific storm activity between July 3 and August 16, 1999. pic.twitter.com/4zKdY0OTPK/Twitter” Weakened to a tropical depression on the 2nd of July, nothing is expected for the next five days for each country Philip Klotzbach on Twitter: “No Atlantic storms identified since #Colin weakened to a tropical depression on July 2nd, no forecast for the next five days according to the #National Hurricane Center. Last time the Atlantic wasn’t Specific storm activity between July 3 and August 16, 1999. pic.twitter.com/4zKdY0OTPK/Twitter” center. The last time the Atlantic Ocean had no named storm activity was between July 3 and August 16, 1999. Philip Klotzbach on Twitter: “No Atlantic storms identified since #Colin weakened to a tropical depression on July 2nd, no forecast for the next five days according to the #National Hurricane Center. Last time the Atlantic Ocean wasn’t Specific storm activity between July 3 and August 16, 1999. pic.twitter.com/4zKdY0OTPK/Twitter”
Despite this fact, the situation is not abnormal. On average, the fourth named storm appears on August 15 while the first cyclone appears on August 11. It usually takes until September 1 for a major hurricane to form, either Category 3 or greater.
Nothing has been decided yet…
In short, even if the current situation gives the impression of an amorphous season, we are on schedule. The most active time for hurricanes is between mid-August and mid-October. During this period the water temperature in the tropical Atlantic basin is at its warmest and the winds are slightly calmer, due to less variation between air masses.
This results in less shear, a component that weakens tropical storm formation. So, even though the next five days are shaping up to be calm, it may be the calm before the storm…
