Although we have the impression that we have already witnessed this scenario and noticed the warning signs of US defeat, 2024 will be crucial for the survival of the historic ally on which we are particularly dependent.
Trump and permanent chaos
January marks the beginning of the schedule of caucuses and primaries that serve to determine the nominees of the two major political parties for the presidential election.
If we are always preparing during this period from January to June to cover one or two scandals, nothing prepares us for what we will experience during the coming months.
Not only will Donald Trump's setbacks in court be a mark for the entire campaign, but the rulings will affect the balance of power for several years.
You already know that he is in court in New York (fraud), in Georgia (rigging 2020 results), in Florida (secret documents), and in Washington for his role in the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.
To these historical cases, we must now add to this list two appeals before the Supreme Court. First, the Supreme Court will have to rule on nominee Trump's eligibility.
Under Article 3 of 14H After the amendment, the states of Maine and Colorado ruled that Trump, because of his encouragement of the January 6 attack, could not be a candidate.
What will the Supreme Court say? Very smart who can predict the outcome. Despite everything, I dare say that we will find a way out to avoid having to endure the hatred of rejecting the candidate.
We will either say that the office of president was not properly named in Section 3, or we will point out that Trump was never convicted of insurrection, or we will redirect the final decision to elected officials in Congress.
The other big decision we expect from the Supreme Court is the decision regarding presidential immunity. We already know that this immunity protects him in civil matters, but does it extend to criminal matters? If that were the case, the president in the United States would be like a king!
Stable democracy?
So, once again, we have several months to focus, whether we want to or not, on Donald Trump and his supporters. It is disturbing and dangerous for such an individual to monopolize attention.
Meanwhile, who talks about “current affairs”? Very few people. The machine is not completely paralyzed, but too often discussions are unnecessarily directed toward extremism.
Whether in foreign policy or domestic policy, Trump's omnipresence is an unhealthy distraction. I'd prefer Biden to beat him a second time, but if it's the courts that sideline him, I won't complain.
As Westerners, Canadians or Quebeckers, we cannot afford a second Trump term. The United States is even less than us.
