The war in Ukraine is heading towards a critical turning point. Vladimir Putin is expected to deploy at least 300,000 more troops there soon. Meanwhile, the United States and its allies continue to ship increasingly advanced weapons there. What would happen if the Russian forces failed to gain significant ground? Is Putin really looking for a truce? Does he want to negotiate?
1. Why did Putin offer a truce?
Putin offered a truce because soldiers don’t like to fight on Christmas. Orthodox Christmas, which takes place these days, is an opportunity for them to connect with their families, have a good rest and drink plenty of alcohol. Denying a truce to the Russian soldiers would not be welcome, especially since morale among the troops was very low. Moreover, Putin can only emerge victorious in terms of propaganda. If the Ukrainians respect the truce, he will be able to say that they are already Orthodox “brothers”. Otherwise, he could criticize Ukrainian leaders and point out that they don’t even respect Christmas. So the truce does not mean negotiations.
2. What are the risks of Putin winning this war?
In the long run, Putin has no chance of winning this war, even if he manages to militarily occupy the entire country. A few years later, resistance movements would eventually drive him out of Ukraine. But it is not at all certain that sending more Russian soldiers would change the outcome of the war. The Russian military has displayed such corruption and incompetence that it is hard to believe that it could solve these problems so quickly. In addition, the Ukrainian army is fighting to defend its territory, while Russian soldiers know full well that they are fighting a war whose ultimate goal is only to defend Putin’s power.
3. Will the new weapons change the outcome of the war?
Ukraine has become an ideal testing ground for new weapons. The new hypersonic missiles that Russia wants to send there should cause significant damage, because they are theoretically unstoppable. However, no one except the Russian General Staff knows how many hypersonic missiles are in stock. Furthermore, the ship harboring them is a potential target. One wonders why these missiles are not simply launched from Russian soil. It is possible that Putin wants to hit the imagination. On the other hand, the new weapons that the Ukrainians will get will increase their striking power everywhere on the ground. These weapons can be used to attack Russian lands.
4. What are the risks of an extension of the war?
Volodymyr Zelensky said that the Ukrainian army could strike the Russian army deep into Russian territory. Such attacks would be unbearable for the Russian government, which would not fail to threaten the United States and its allies with armed retaliation. So far, no country has sent soldiers to fight in Ukraine on the Russian side or the Ukrainian side, which minimizes the risks.
5. Could the war end this year?
Barring a series of decisive victories in Ukraine, Putin, like many of his opponents, can begin to jam doors and windows. Putin’s defeat will have a beneficial effect on markets and on coalitions of democracies. On the contrary, a Putin victory would cause a lot of instability and accelerate the arms race around the world.
