The small catch has been described as an amazing breakthrough. Nearly three months after launching its counteroffensive, Ukraine rejoiced this week in the liberation of a small village, Ropotyn, on the southern front of Moscow’s 555-day war of conquest against Ukraine.
The Ukrainian General Staff and Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar portrayed this breach as a “first” crack in the line of defense of the Russian occupation, but also as the opening of a road that now runs through the cities of Tokmak, and then Melitopol. To reach the borders of Crimea, which Moscow has occupied since 2014.
This symbolic and strategic path could eventually lead to the rupture of the supply networks of the Kremlin’s militaries. But the Ukrainian leadership hopes above all to make it a turning point in its attempt to reconquer the territories occupied by Russia.
Since June 8, Kiev has been seeking the Incheon Surprise, the decisive battle that in 1950, in another war, the Korean War, led to a stunning strategic reversal in favor of the South.
Operation Chromite – that was its real name – ended after two weeks leading to the liberation of Seoul, thus changing the tone and direction of the invasion that the North had begun a few months earlier. This is the scenario that Ukraine dreamed of, but its realization is still uncertain, despite the capture of Robotyn and the first breakthrough it represents.
Surprise challenge
War historian David Selby, a professor at Cornell University, points out that “surprise presented a major challenge for the Ukrainians.” duty in Washington. The operations that his army must carry out to penetrate the Russian defenses, through mine clearance and artillery bombardment, clearly indicate the place where the attack will take place,” which further complicates the process of catching the enemy by surprise.
“There’s no chance of seeing a strategic surprise in this counterattack,” adds Nick Reynolds, researcher and analyst at the UK’s Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies (RUSI). Since last year, this has not been a possible component of the response. The terrain and potential ways forward are well understood on both sides, making this counter-offensive difficult, despite the many messages of hope sent by the Ukrainians that raise high expectations. »
Great expectations, but also, in the long run, great frustrations, according to the statement made Thursday by Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, who called out critical voices over his country’s meager territorial gains since launching the counter-campaign. Attack to “close it”.
The terrain and potential ways forward are well understood on both sides, making this counter-offensive difficult, despite the many messages of hope sent by the Ukrainians that raise high expectations.
Since June, Kiev has recovered just over 200 km2 161,000 km2 From the lands that the Russians have controlled since 2014, despite the intensity of the fighting and the human losses on both sides of the front lines.
According to the United States, 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have lost their lives since the start of the conflict, and 120,000 have been wounded. Washington estimates the death toll on the Russian side at about 300,000.
“Criticizing the slowness of the counterattack is like spitting in the face of the Ukrainian soldier who sacrificed his life,” Kuleba said on the sidelines of a meeting of European Union foreign ministers in Toledo, Spain. “I suggest everyone who criticizes shut up, come to Ukraine and try to free up a square inch on their own.”
Weakening on the Russian side
On Friday, Hanna Malyar described the simple progress made by the Ukrainian forces through minefields, trenches and Russian fortifications towards the Sea of Azov as a “success”.
For his part, Brigadier General Serhiy Baranov sounded optimistic, referring to the artillery strikes that would have reduced Russia’s defensive capabilities on the southern front, where Ukrainian hopes now seem to be concentrated.
David Selby says: “The conflict seems to have settled into a context similar to that of World War I, or even World War II, with the defenses on the Russian side well established and few chances of overthrowing them. Russian defenses are extremely deep, protected by minefields, tank traps and a massive artillery presence. In this environment, where neither side has air superiority, the question is whether the Ukrainians can now advance faster than the Russians can rebuild their defensive lines. »
If a complete surprise remains unlikely, the hope remains to see a weakening of the Russian forces, which could eventually “open up a path allowing for a faster advance”, estimates Phillips O’Brien, a military strategist at the University of St Andrews. North of Edinburgh, Scotland. “The Ukrainians are doing this drain now. We should know soon if this will be enough to support the desired progress,” and above all to start this decline, which Kiev would like to boast of with the advent of cold weather.
