Weakened by a protracted war in Ukraine, Putin may have to step down, while finding ways not to admit defeat.
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If this war continues for a long time, and if the Russian leader makes the decision to withdraw from the conflict, his image will be tarnished.
“The Donbass republics are called the ‘independent republics of eastern Ukraine,'” Guillaume Lavoy, associate member of the Raoul Dandurand chair, explains live on LCN. This represents a form of small victory, because Russia has already expanded its aura in this part of the country.
This conquest of influence may represent a small victory for Vladimir Putin, if he wishes to maintain a good opinion of his people.
The expert assumes: “If one day we try to find a way for Mr. Putin to save face, that might be where he can at least say he made some gains,”
To survive, the Ukrainian forces will need the support of Western countries, because the latter do not want direct intervention.
To push the conflict in Ukraine’s direction, it “may have to do more of what we’re already doing.” “Send weapons and money because Ukraine has to keep working,” Mr. Lavoy said.
While Western forces are providing the Ukrainian government with ever more powerful weapons, Russia for its part is also working to improve its arsenal. I recently tested a hypersonic missile, for example.
“They had already used them to attack, and NATO’s response was to provide anti-missile missiles,” says associate member of the Raoul Dandurand Chair.
The question of the possible use of atomic weapons is unlikely. Guillaume Lavoie concludes that “the use of atomic weapons is costly, within the framework of international solidarity.”
Find the full interview with Guillaume Lavoie, associate member of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in the video above.
