Table below comes from Climate data storeIt is a tool developed by the European Copernicus Consortium, which collects weather and climate data from several sources, both terrestrial and orbital. Compiling data in graphical form also allows for better generalization and visualization.
In itself, “determining” when we will cross the 1.5 degree mark also depends on the definition we give of “overshoot”. For the most cautious (like the authors of the recent IPCC report), this milestone will officially be reached when average global warming exceeds 1.5°C for two decades. For others, it may be better to use a combination of observations over 10 years and forecasts for the next decade.
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But beyond these definitions, Copernicus's conception allows above all to see that the rise in temperatures seems to be accelerating since 2010, in addition to the fact that there is still room for maneuver before reaching the symbolic threshold: the future scenario that the red line expresses is in fact the line Under which greenhouse gases continue to evolve at the current rate. However, if the decline is about to start, as the most optimistic believe, the red line of the chart will bend slightly towards the horizontal, and the symbolic threshold will be pushed back by a few months or a few years.
This does not mean that we will avoid this exceedance: even in the most optimistic scenarios, this threshold will be crossed sooner or later. But the development of these graphs should quickly reveal whether the efforts are beginning to bear fruit. Currently, Copernicus estimates the increase in average temperature at 1.28 degrees.
