2023 could be even more turbulent than 2022. Five issues in particular should grab our attention. Some of it could escalate into World War III.
It’s been a long time since we’ve been so close to such a disaster. Fortunately, the worst is never certain. It is important to understand the central issues of 2023 to avoid slipping into panic.
1. The war in Ukraine may escalate and Putin may fall
Vladimir Putin announced that he would greatly increase the size of his army. He also decided to use hypersonic weapons to fight the Patriot missiles, which the Americans will supply to Ukraine. Russia is pushing China to get more involved in the war. It seeks to involve Belarusian forces directly in the conflict. Putin plays the role of the future of his dictatorship in this war. So he is ready to move on. Ukrainians will never accept the Russian occupation and are also ready to move forward. Therefore, the risks of conflict spillover are higher than ever. But given the horrific way the Russian military has behaved thus far, it is by no means certain that Putin will succeed in winning this war. If the people and other Russian leaders also come to this conclusion, Putin’s future is numbered.
2. Will Taiwan be invaded?
It would be as unreasonable for China to invade Taiwan as it is for Russia to invade Ukraine. However, the Chinese army has never been so strong before. Xi Jinping would also like to make history by taking back control of Taiwan. The longer Xi waits, the greater the risks for Taiwan in strengthening its military. On the contrary, China’s economy is doing poorly, and invading Taiwan will severely damage the country’s trade.
3. Will the Iranian regime fall?
Joe Biden said before Christmas that the nuclear development deal with Iran was dead. Iran probably now has enough enriched uranium to make a few atomic bombs. The United States seems resigned to seeing Iran acquire atomic weapons. But not Israel, whose government includes many religious fanatics. How will they react? What will Saudi Arabia do? Meanwhile, the Iranian people continue to challenge the established authority. Iran risks becoming ungovernable and more dangerous than ever.
4. Will inflation go down?
Now almost all countries suffer from high inflation. This inflation has swelled popular discontent in several places, such as Pakistan, the United Kingdom or Sri Lanka. The governments of many countries are struggling with the following dilemma: raising wages too much will also lead to an increase in inflation, and it will then be difficult to break this vicious circle, but, on the other hand, not raising wages enough can lead to stagnation and lead to Serious recession. social problems.
5. What will be the results of the elections in India and Turkey?
Several countries will hold general elections in 2023, including Turkey in June. It seems that Recep Tayyip Erdogan is in trouble. He has jailed many of his opponents, including Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, but opinion polls show he could still lose the election. An Islamist Erdogan destroys Ataturk’s secular legacy and distances his country from Europe. An Erdogan victory would put Turkey further on the path to dictatorship. The country will continue to destabilize the region.
Happy New Year to all of you! Thank you for the honor of reading me.
